The Forecasts

Hurricane Jeanne confounded the forecasters. She headed north up toward the central Atlantic, but ran into the Bermuda High. At one point she was headed Northeast and was nearly the same latitude as Fort Pierce (I stop hurricane preparations after a hurricane gets north of my latitude, because hurricanes just don't travel to the south). However, she turned back south, completed a circle and headed west. From that point the forecasts of landfall were dead accurate. At 11:00 a.m. on Thrusday, 9/23/04, she was forecast to make landfall near Stuart at about 8 a.m. Sunday. She made landfall at the forecast place, only about 9 hours early.

Jeanne's Track

Track of Jeanne's Winds

(prior landfall)

The Forecasts

The National Hurricane Center's forecast of the final part hurricane's track was reasonably accurate.

 
9/23/04 11AM   9/25/04 5AM
 
9/25/04 5AM   9/25/04 5PM